The central bank in the United Kingdom sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
Published byBank of England (BoE)
. It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Thursday 10 Sep
08:15EUR
Main Refinancing Rate
Forecast 2.65% · Previous 2.40%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the eurozone published on the calendar.
2.65% is expected, versus 2.40% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:15EUR
Monetary Policy Statement
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core PPI m/m
Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.3% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
PPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.0%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.0% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Unemployment Claims
Forecast 205K · Previous 206K
Medio
What it is and what to watch
How many people are working in United States. It matters for an indirect reason: the central bank watches employment to decide the rate. An employment number is, at its core, an early read on rates.
205K is expected, versus 206K in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. And if the release includes hourly wages, that figure usually matters more than the jobs number itself — it's the one that feeds through into inflation.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:45EUR
ECB Press Conference
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Friday 11 Sep
02:00GBP
GDP m/m
Forecast 0.0% · Previous 0.3%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the United Kingdom moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
0.0% is expected, versus 0.3% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
05:15CHF
SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in Switzerland sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.2% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI y/y
Forecast 2.4% · Previous 2.5%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
2.4% is expected, versus 2.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.1%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.1% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI y/y
Forecast 3.4% · Previous 3.4%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
3.4% is expected, versus 3.4% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
It measures how much the economy in United States moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
51.0 is expected, versus 51.0 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Previous 4.3%
Medio
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Saturday 12 Sep
03:30EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.