Main Refinancing Rate
Forecast 2.65% · Previous 2.40%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the eurozone published on the calendar.
2.65% is expected, versus 2.40% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:15EUR
Monetary Policy Statement
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core PPI m/m
Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.3% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
PPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.0%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.0% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:45EUR
ECB Press Conference
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Friday 11 Sep
02:00GBP
GDP m/m
Forecast 0.0% · Previous 0.3%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the United Kingdom moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
0.0% is expected, versus 0.3% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.2% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI y/y
Forecast 2.4% · Previous 2.5%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
2.4% is expected, versus 2.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.1%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.1% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI y/y
Forecast 3.4% · Previous 3.4%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
3.4% is expected, versus 3.4% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.