It measures how much the economy in Japan moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
46.3 is expected, versus 45.7 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:00EUR
German Trade Balance
Forecast 16.0B · Previous 15.4B
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The difference between what in the eurozone sells and buys abroad. A country that sells more than it buys generates demand for its own currency.
16.0B is expected, versus 15.4B in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether the balance has been improving or deteriorating over recent periods.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:45EUR
French Trade Balance
Forecast -6.0B · Previous -5.8B
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The difference between what in the eurozone sells and buys abroad. A country that sells more than it buys generates demand for its own currency.
-6.0B is expected, versus -5.8B in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether the balance has been improving or deteriorating over recent periods.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
05:30AUD
RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in Australia sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
06:00USD
NFIB Small Business Index
Forecast 99.4 · Previous 99.8
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in United States published on the calendar.
99.4 is expected, versus 99.8 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
09:15GBP
Monetary Policy Report Hearings
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the United Kingdom sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
Published byBank of England (BoE)
. It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Economic data in United States published on the calendar.
11.9B is expected, versus 14.2B in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
19:50JPY
M2 Money Stock y/y
Forecast 2.2% · Previous 2.2%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in Japan published on the calendar.
2.2% is expected, versus 2.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
21:30CNY
CPI y/y
Forecast 0.8% · Previous 0.5%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in China. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.8% is expected, versus 0.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
21:30CNY
PPI y/y
Forecast 3.6% · Previous 3.5%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in China. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
3.6% is expected, versus 3.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Wednesday 9 Sep
02:00JPY
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
Previous 50.4%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in Japan published on the calendar.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:45EUR
French Industrial Production m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.1%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the eurozone moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
0.2% is expected, versus 0.1% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
05:42EUR
German 10-y Bond Auction
Previous 3.26|1.1
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The government in the eurozone goes out to borrow, and the market sets the price. The yield it agrees to pay shows how expensive that debt is.
What to watch. The yield and the demand. A sharply rising yield usually goes hand in hand with a currency move too — but this is a second-tier event, not one that stops the market.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:15USD
ADP Weekly Employment Change
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How many people are working in United States. It matters for an indirect reason: the central bank watches employment to decide the rate. An employment number is, at its core, an early read on rates.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. And if the release includes hourly wages, that figure usually matters more than the jobs number itself — it's the one that feeds through into inflation.
Published by
ADP Research . It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:16USD
ADP Weekly Employment Change
Previous 11.8K
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How many people are working in United States. It matters for an indirect reason: the central bank watches employment to decide the rate. An employment number is, at its core, an early read on rates.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. And if the release includes hourly wages, that figure usually matters more than the jobs number itself — it's the one that feeds through into inflation.
Published by
ADP Research . It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
13:00EUR
German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
Published byBundesbank
. It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
13:00EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
13:01USD
10-y Bond Auction
Previous 4.68|2.5
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The government in United States goes out to borrow, and the market sets the price. The yield it agrees to pay shows how expensive that debt is.
What to watch. The yield and the demand. A sharply rising yield usually goes hand in hand with a currency move too — but this is a second-tier event, not one that stops the market.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
16:30USD
API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much crude or gas is in storage in United States. It's pure supply: extra inventory means more product available than expected, and a shortfall means less.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. Unlike the rest of the calendar, this number doesn't work through the currency — it hits the energy price directly.
Published by
American Petroleum Institute (API) . It's published there first, with no one else's spin on it.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
19:01GBP
RICS House Price Balance
Forecast -30% · Previous -30%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the United Kingdom published on the calendar.
-30% is expected, versus -30% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
21:00AUD
MI Inflation Expectations
Previous 4.9%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in Australia. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Thursday 10 Sep
02:00EUR
German Final CPI m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.2%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in the eurozone. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.2% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
04:00EUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
Forecast 0.3% · Previous -1.0%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the eurozone moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
0.3% is expected, versus -1.0% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:15EUR
Main Refinancing Rate
Forecast 2.65% · Previous 2.40%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the eurozone published on the calendar.
2.65% is expected, versus 2.40% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:15EUR
Monetary Policy Statement
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core PPI m/m
Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.3% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
PPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.0%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.0% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Unemployment Claims
Forecast 205K · Previous 206K
Medio
What it is and what to watch
How many people are working in United States. It matters for an indirect reason: the central bank watches employment to decide the rate. An employment number is, at its core, an early read on rates.
205K is expected, versus 206K in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. And if the release includes hourly wages, that figure usually matters more than the jobs number itself — it's the one that feeds through into inflation.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:45EUR
ECB Press Conference
Alto
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00USD
Existing Home Sales
Forecast 3.98M · Previous 4.06M
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in United States published on the calendar.
3.98M is expected, versus 4.06M in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00USD
Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
Forecast 1.2% · Previous 1.3%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in United States published on the calendar.
1.2% is expected, versus 1.3% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:30USD
Natural Gas Storage
Previous 30B
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much crude or gas is in storage in United States. It's pure supply: extra inventory means more product available than expected, and a shortfall means less.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. Unlike the rest of the calendar, this number doesn't work through the currency — it hits the energy price directly.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
12:00USD
Crude Oil Inventories
Previous -4.5M
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much crude or gas is in storage in United States. It's pure supply: extra inventory means more product available than expected, and a shortfall means less.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. Unlike the rest of the calendar, this number doesn't work through the currency — it hits the energy price directly.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
13:01USD
30-y Bond Auction
Previous 5.22|2.4
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
The government in United States goes out to borrow, and the market sets the price. The yield it agrees to pay shows how expensive that debt is.
What to watch. The yield and the demand. A sharply rising yield usually goes hand in hand with a currency move too — but this is a second-tier event, not one that stops the market.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
18:30NZD
BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index
Previous 54.3
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in New Zealand published on the calendar.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
19:50JPY
BSI Manufacturing Index
Forecast 2.5 · Previous -1.8
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in Japan published on the calendar.
2.5 is expected, versus -1.8 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
19:50JPY
PPI y/y
Forecast 7.4% · Previous 7.2%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in Japan. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
7.4% is expected, versus 7.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Friday 11 Sep
02:00GBP
GDP m/m
Forecast 0.0% · Previous 0.3%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the United Kingdom moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
0.0% is expected, versus 0.3% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:00GBP
Construction Output m/m
Forecast 0.1% · Previous -0.1%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the United Kingdom published on the calendar.
0.1% is expected, versus -0.1% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
The difference between what in the United Kingdom sells and buys abroad. A country that sells more than it buys generates demand for its own currency.
-22.6B is expected, versus -23.0B in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether the balance has been improving or deteriorating over recent periods.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:00GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
Forecast 0.5% · Previous 0.5%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the United Kingdom published on the calendar.
0.5% is expected, versus 0.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:00GBP
Industrial Production m/m
Forecast -0.2% · Previous -0.2%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
It measures how much the economy in the United Kingdom moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
-0.2% is expected, versus -0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
02:00GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous -0.5%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in the United Kingdom published on the calendar.
0.2% is expected, versus -0.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
03:00CHF
SECO Consumer Climate
Forecast -33 · Previous -35
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in Switzerland published on the calendar.
-33 is expected, versus -35 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
04:00EUR
Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.4% · Previous 5.3%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How many people are working in the eurozone. It matters for an indirect reason: the central bank watches employment to decide the rate. An employment number is, at its core, an early read on rates.
5.4% is expected, versus 5.3% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected. And if the release includes hourly wages, that figure usually matters more than the jobs number itself — it's the one that feeds through into inflation.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
04:30GBP
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Previous 4.0%
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in the United Kingdom. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
05:15CHF
SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in Switzerland sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.2%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.2% is expected, versus 0.2% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
Core CPI y/y
Forecast 2.4% · Previous 2.5%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
2.4% is expected, versus 2.5% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI m/m
Forecast 0.4% · Previous 0.1%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
0.4% is expected, versus 0.1% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
08:30USD
CPI y/y
Forecast 3.4% · Previous 3.4%
Alto
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
3.4% is expected, versus 3.4% in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.
It measures how much the economy in United States moved over the period: output, sales, or spending, depending on the release.
51.0 is expected, versus 51.0 in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. The gap versus what was expected, and whether it confirms or contradicts the direction the earlier data had been pointing to.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
10:00USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Previous 4.3%
Medio
What it is and what to watch
How much prices rose in United States. It's the number that most shapes the next rate decision.
What to watch. When both versions appear, the core reading usually matters more than the headline one: it strips out food and energy, which are noisy, and leaves the underlying trend.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
14:00USD
Federal Budget Balance
Forecast -221.1B · Previous -432.3B
Bajo
What it is and what to watch
Economic data in United States published on the calendar.
-221.1B is expected, versus -432.3B in the prior period. If it comes in close to expectations, little usually happens: what moves the price is missing expectations.
What to watch. As with everything on the calendar, what usually moves the price is the gap versus what was expected, not the number itself.
This explains how the market tends to react to a surprise. It's not a signal or a forecast.
Saturday 12 Sep
03:30EUR
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Medio
What it is and what to watch
The central bank in the eurozone sets the price of money: the rate at which it lends. It's the single biggest driver of a currency, because it changes how much it pays to hold it.
What to watch. The number almost never surprises anyone — the market has usually already priced it in. What moves the price is the tone: whether they signal more hikes ahead, or that they're done. That's why the press conference usually moves the market more than the decision itself.